Five Key Battleground Ridings to Watch in the 2025 Federal Election

As Canada approaches the federal election on April 28, 2025, several key ridings have emerged as pivotal battlegrounds that could significantly influence the overall outcome. These constituencies are drawing national attention due to their competitive nature, prominent candidates, and the broader political implications they carry. Here’s an in-depth look at five ridings to watch:​

Edmonton Centre, Alberta

Edmonton Centre is shaping up to be a pivotal battleground in the upcoming federal election. The seat was thrown wide open after incumbent Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault announced on March 21, 2025, that he would not seek re-election, following a series of scandals. The most serious involved a company he co-owned that had falsely identified as Indigenous-owned to obtain federal contracts. In the wake of his departure, the Conservative Party nominated Sayid Ahmed, a provincial government employee and community leader, whose campaign emphasizes public safety, economic growth, and fiscal responsibility - key issues aimed at voters seeking change. Representing the NDP is Trisha Estabrooks, the well-known former chair of the Edmonton Public School Board and journalist, who is campaigning on progressive priorities like affordable housing, climate action, and strengthening public education. The Liberals, who polling suggests hold a competitive edge riding despite Boissonnault’s transgressions, have tapped Alberta lawyer Eleanor Olszewski to carry their banner. A perennial candidate with deep roots in the party, Olszewsk’s nomination followed speculation that Liberal Leader Mark Carney might run in the downtown Edmonton district, as Edmonton Centre was where he launched his leadership bid.

Calgary McKnight, Alberta

Calgary McKnight, a newly created federal riding, has swiftly emerged as a key battleground in Alberta. Liberal MP George Chahal, formerly representing Calgary Skyview and a former Calgary city councillor, is now seeking election in this new district. Despite being one of only two Liberal MPs from Alberta, Chahal has notably not been appointed to cabinet. This could change after the election, however, as Chahal is known to have close ties with Liberal Leader Mark Carney. The riding itself is one of the most diverse in the province, with nearly 40 percent of the population identifying as South Asian - a demographic Chahal has actively engaged with throughout his political career. The Conservatives have nominated Dalwinder Gill, setting the stage for a competitive showdown between two high-profile candidates. Also in the race are NDP candidate Arlington Antonio Santiago, Green Party candidate Evelyn Tanaka, and People's Party candidate Najeeb Butt. The result in Calgary McKnight will be a key indicator of whether the Liberals can continue to gain ground in Alberta's traditionally Conservative landscape.

Richmond - Arthabaska, Quebec

Richmond - Arthabaska is emerging as a key battleground in the 2025 federal election, with high stakes for the Conservative Party. Once held by former Conservative MP Alain Rayes - who left the party in 2022 to sit as an Independent - the riding is now being contested by Éric Lefebvre, a former CAQ government whip and a prominent figure in Quebec politics. This central Quebec riding, which includes Victoriaville and Val-des-Sources, has a history of swinging between the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois, making it a vital target for any party seeking a foothold in the province. The Conservatives won this seat in 2021 and must win it again if they hope to build a path to government, particularly as Quebec is essential to securing a majority. Lefebvre faces a crowded field, including Bloc candidate Daniel Lebel, Liberal Alain Saint-Pierre, and others, but it’s the showdown between the Conservatives and the Bloc that will ultimately decide whether the Conservatives can maintain momentum in a province long considered a Liberal and Bloc stronghold.

Malpeque, Prince Edward Island

Malpeque, a riding that has remained firmly in Liberal hands since 1988, is shaping up to be one of the more closely watched contests in Atlantic Canada during the 2025 federal election. The entry of former provincial Conservative cabinet minister Jamie Fox into the race has altered the dynamic significantly. Fox resigned his provincial seat to run federally, bringing with him considerable name recognition and political experience that pose a serious challenge to incumbent Liberal MP Heath MacDonald. While the Atlantic provinces have traditionally been a Liberal stronghold, growing frustration over issues like the carbon tax, affordability, and economic uncertainty are shifting voter sentiment. A Conservative breakthrough in Malpeque would mark a major signal of change in the region, especially in light of recent boundary adjustments that have altered the riding’s composition. Now encompassing additional areas along the North Shore and west of Highway 6, while losing portions around Bedeque and Charlottetown, the redrawn riding could play a subtle but important role in shaping the outcome. Fox and MacDonald are joined by Green candidate Anna Keenan, NDP candidate Cassie MacKay, and People's Party candidate Hilda Baughan, but it’s the head-to-head between the Conservatives and Liberals that will determine whether Malpeque remains a red stronghold - or becomes an early sign of a political realignment in the east.