Intelligence Brief SMC-2025

That will be $1,900 dollars, please

If U.S. President Donald Trump puts a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the US, it will crush broad swaths of the Canadian economy and strike yet another blow to Canadian families.

The Conference Board of Canada says the proposed tariffs would cost Canadian households $1,900 every year. The timing couldn’t be worse. Canadians are already struggling to buy groceries and make the mortgage payments. The Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses estimates that 65 per cent of Canadian small businesses would be forced to increase prices on goods and services. Crisis is an overused word but this time it fits. A bad situation is about to get far worse at the very moment when we are also experiencing a leadership vacuum in the federal government.

The governing Liberals are embroiled in the internal drama of a party leadership race. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned but will remain on as prime minister until a new leader is chosen in March.

While many Canadians are happy to see Trudeau go, the Liberal Party’s implosion couldn’t have come at a worse time for businesses and industry, who are looking to Ottawa for diplomatic solutions – not “lame duck” leadership and proposed counter-tariffs that could escalate matters into a full-scale trade war.

There is hope, however, for businesses and industry, who are struggling to determine what comes next and plan for the future. While politically chaotic times such as these may fuel negative sentiments, they often provide unique opportunities.

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In Canada, it’s no secret that all parties are gearing up for a federal election that could come as soon as this spring. After years of high inflation, stagnant growth, and low productivity – Canadians are particularly ornery this election cycle, and rightly so. They aren’t looking for the same old, same old from their politicians – they’re looking for real solutions that will help them pay their bills and invest in their futures. Therefore, while parties begin work on their policy platforms, now is a perfect time for organizations to make their voices heard and effect change.

The election of Trump, who is embarking on his first hundred days in office, offers a unique opportunity for Canadian companies to launch campaigns and make their voices heard. Trump has relished the role of being a change-maker in Washington D.C. and is hitting the reset button on a wide array of traditional norms and relationships with his continental partners. For industries and companies that do business with the United States, this period of change presents a strategic moment to capitalize on new dynamics and forge stronger connections with their American trading partners.

At SHIFT, we understand that Canadian business leaders are experts in their fields yet aren’t always skilled at running political campaigns. We provide the tools and solutions to strategically move markets and votes, ensuring companies and organizations are telling their own stories, not having narratives shaped for them.

As a former cabinet minister who has worked through leadership changes and tumultuous political times, I know that now is the perfect time to act for anyone seeking to send a message to their provincial capitals, Ottawa, or Washington, D.C.

The political landscape is rapidly changing across Canada and North America, and there is opportunity in the chaos. SHIFT wants to work with you to seize that opportunity.

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Written by
Monte Solberg Partner